I’m sitting in 9th place, 67 whopping points behind the league leader after the first month of the baseball season. That’s pretty awful. The question is, do I have any hope? I decided to take a statistical approach to see if I should jump ship on my team, or try to hold through this miserable start.
The first thing I looked at was the historical monthly averages and standard deviations of the players on my team. When I did this, I got a pretty ugly picture for April, but some hope for the future.
The green represents the categories where my players are performing better than their historical averages, while the red …. well, you know. A lot of red on this chart … a lot. Should I be selling low right now?
The data is telling us that April 2010 was a uncharacteristically bad for my team when compared to typical months in their career. If statistics hold, I should expect a reasonable bounce back for nearly all my players for the rest of the year. I should hold out for a little bit longer before making any significant panic moves, but I will certainly be looking for improvements across the board. I’ll be keeping a close eye on riskier players like Ichiro (age) and Hamilton (injuries), and they will be the guys I’d look to move for a younger/healthier equal poor starting ‘star.’
What have I done so far? I’ve moved Molina for the ‘no timeshare’ Miguel Olivio in Colorado, and I’ve gotten Lance Berkman back to take the spot of Curtis Granderson (who actually wasn’t that much of a drag on my team since I only play him against right-handers, check the splits for his career). If Rich Harden can put it together, Grienke get’s some offensive help, and Dave Duncan has really fixed Brad Penny, I might have a fighting shot.
Your turn. Who would you target right now in a trade, and who would you move off my team?
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